Transport
Central Asia occupies a unique geostrategic position. This role was once played by the Great Silk Road, which linked Europe with China and India.
Today, the transport routes of the Central Asian countries are being restored and modernized in line with contemporary economic, technological, and logistical standards.
Because the region is landlocked, transport and logistics connectivity must become one of the central pillars of its development. The time may have come to develop a unified regional transport strategy that brings together existing corridors, export routes, and domestic connections. In effect, this is about the central nodes of the Eurasian continent. At the same time, the region’s current position in world trade falls well short of its potential: although annual trade turnover between Europe and East Asia exceeds US$1.5 trillion, Central Asia’s share of it remains below 3%.
The gap between the region’s potential and its actual standing stems from a number of factors — inadequate infrastructure development, institutional barriers, and a lack of coordination among the countries of the region. Yet it is precisely in this gap that enormous potential lies.
Scenarios
Existing transport routes — including the northern route via Kazakhstan and Russia, and the central corridor via the Caucasus or China — show a high degree of dependence on external factors. Geopolitical instability, sanctions-related restrictions, infrastructure bottlenecks, and differing technical standards all create the risk of disrupted supply routes and rising logistics costs.
According to the Asian Development Bank, modernizing transport systems will require approximately US$500 billion by 2030. Under CAREC, 22 transport projects have already been implemented (worth US$6.1 billion between 2001 and 2024); China has invested more than US$20 billion under its Belt and Road Initiative; and the EU, under its Global Gateway program, has announced plans to invest up to €10 billion in developing the Trans-Caspian route.
This promising corridor comprises two main railway routes: Route I — via Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Herat to the ports of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar; Route II — via Termez–Naibobod–Maidan Shahr–Logar–Kharlachi, both still at the design and negotiation stage. The estimated cost of the Trans-Afghan Railway (647 km) to Pakistani ports is put at US$4.6 billion. Expected freight volume along these two corridors is around 10 million tons a year, potentially rising to 40 million tons over the following decade. Preliminary estimates suggest that transit time through this corridor would fall from 35 days to 3–5 days, while container shipping costs would nearly halve.While such a high concentration of resources makes it possible to implement major infrastructure projects, it also highlights the importance of diversifying funding sources and expanding public-private partnership (PPP) instruments to strengthen resilience.
According to World Bank and regional analytical data, in 2023 (the most recent available report) the Central Asian countries differ markedly on the Logistics Performance Index (LPI). Kazakhstan posts the best result, ranking 79th out of 139 countries with a score of 2.7 — the region's highest. Uzbekistan ranks 88th with a score of 2.6, reflecting moderate improvement in recent years. Tajikistan ranks 97th (around 2.5), remaining in the lower part of the ranking, while Kyrgyzstan — with a score of around 2.3 and a rank of 123rd — records the lowest logistics performance among the Central Asian countries.
Road transport currently accounts for approximately 70% of the region's freight turnover, reflecting a heavy reliance on this mode of transport. At the same time, this creates substantial scope for shifting toward rail and multimodal solutions, fully in line with the global "green logistics" agenda.
The development of trunk transport corridors is proceeding at a rapid pace, laying a solid foundation for future growth. At the same time, this underscores the importance of expanding regional and local infrastructure, since doing so brings rural and mountainous areas into the overall transport system and allows a broader range of people to benefit from transit.
If the development of transport systems is carried out in coordination among the countries of the region, Central Asia could become one of Eurasia's key transit hubs. Forecasts suggest that, with successful project implementation, transit freight volumes could grow 3–4 times by 2050, the region's share of Eurasian transit could rise from 3% to 8–10%, and annual revenue from transport could reach US$25–30 billion. At the same time, increasing rail's share to 55–60% would cut the carbon footprint by 35–40%, while the transport and logistics sector's contribution to regional GDP could reach 1.5–2% annually.Recommendations
- 1 Particular attention should be given to increasing rail's share of freight from the current 30% to 45–50% by 2035, which will require large-scale railway electrification, the procurement of modern rolling stock, and accelerated development of container services. Establishing multimodal hubs and dry ports — such as Khorgos, Aktau, Tashkent, and Khujand — should be carried out in close coordination with national and regional transport networks, allowing for a unified system of freight distribution and reducing the burden on individual links. Key priorities remain the construction and reconstruction of international highways, improved access roads to logistics centers, and an expanded network of electrified railways.
- 2 Even where modern infrastructure exists, the region's transit potential may go unrealized without institutional reform. Adopting international digital standards such as e-TIR and e-CMR, along with establishing electronic data exchange with neighboring countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan), would reduce transaction costs, speed up cargo clearance, and lower corruption risks. Another important priority is developing border-crossing infrastructure: building additional logistics centers and equipping them with modern cargo control and inspection equipment.
- 3 Ensuring long-term sustainability requires diversifying funding sources by combining resources from the European Union, the ADB, the World Bank, the EBRD, and national funds. Developing public-private partnership mechanisms is particularly important, with their share of transport project financing expected to reach 20–25% by 2030. A key condition for this is greater transparency in managing external debt and the systematic evaluation of project effectiveness, taking into account their socioeconomic impact.
- 4 Uncoordinated action by individual states cannot unlock the region's full potential — this requires coordinated measures at the regional level. The absence of shared strategies leads to project duplication and undermines Central Asia's competitiveness as a unified transit space. An important step in this direction would be creating a regional coordination mechanism to standardize technical parameters, tariffs, and infrastructure access rules, while enabling joint financing.
- 5 Successfully implementing transport and logistics projects in the region requires establishing the Council for Infrastructure Development proposed by the President of Uzbekistan, along with a dedicated Fund for financing priority regional projects. This systemic approach would help synchronize strategies and attract investment effectively.